Description
Assignment Solution : Decision science December 2023
NMIM$ Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Business Law December 2023
Internal Assignment Applicable for December 2023 Examination
Q1. Draw the decision tree diagram and explain the best possible decision based on EMVs(expected Monetary Values) On the 1st April 2023, Rajinder Saproo, an investor is in a dilemma for the investment of 10lakh INR. He has consulted his Mumbai based friend, MukulBhai Gadhecha, an investment expert for this matter. Mr Saproo went to meet him at his office located at Prabhadevi. Mukulbhai asked him to express his feeling for the market situation in coming economic year.
Mr Saproo assumed the economic growth for the coming year in the following way.
10 % optimist for the ‘Good Economic Growth’
50 % optimist for the ‘Moderate Economic Growth’
40 % optimist for the ‘Lower Economic Growth’.
In addition to this, MuKulbhai Gadhecha carried out his analysis to derive possible payoff values considering the various investment options as per the economic situations (presented in the table given below). Figures are in INR on the investment of whole amount of 10 lakhs.
| Options | Good Economic Growth |
Moderate Economic Growth |
Lower Economic Growth’ |
| Mauti Suzuki Shares | 3,00,000 | 1,20,000 | 50,000 |
| TATA Motor Shares | 4,00,000 | 1,00,000 | 10,000 |
| D Mart shares | 4,50,000 | 2,30,000 | 30,000 |
If you were in place of Mukulbhai Gadhecha, What do you recommend to Mr. Saproo?
Note: You are not allowed to use any software for the calculation. But for the preparation of Decision tree diagram you are advised to use Software like MS -Word, PowerPoint etc. (10 Marks)
Q2. Draw the appropriate chart using MS EXCEL, also carryout Exponential Smoothing model in MS EXCEL for the given Alpha values, copy the results (from EXCEL to Word) and explain
which alpha is relatively better for the forecast. In this journey of identification of relatively better way of forecasting you may take the support of MAD and MSE type of errors. Suggested
Alpha values are 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9. (10 Marks)
| Year | Yield of Groundnut (Kg./hectare)|
|———-|———–|
| 2000-01 | 977 |
| 2001-02 | 1127 |
| 2002-03 | 694 |
| 2003-04 | 1357 |
| 2004-05 | 1020 |
| 2005-06 | 1187 |
| 2006-07 | 866 |
| 2007-08 | 1459 |
| 2008-09 | 1163 |
| 2009-10 | 991 |
| 2010-11 | 1411 |
| 2011-12 | 1323 |
| 2012-13 | 995 |
| 2013-14 | 1764 |
| 2014-15 | 1552 |
| 2015-16 | 1465 |
| 2016-17 | 1398 |
| 2017-18 | 1893 |
| 2018-19 | 1422 |
| 2019-20 | 2063 |
| 2020-21 | 1703 |
| 2021-22 | 1758 |
Data Source: RBI
Q3. A) You are not advised to use Software in this case, show the calculation-steps typed in your MS-word file.
In Roshni lights ( manufacturer of Mirchi lights) A production run of 2000 set of Mirchi lights being tested for the life, the data shows that life is normally distributed with an average life span of 90 days and a standard deviation of 10 days. What is the probability if a set of Mirchi
lights randomly selected from that lot, survived up to 100 days? (5 Marks)
Q3 B) Draw an appropriate chart to show the contribution of each category (in percent form)
of Micro, small and medium Enterprises (MSMEs) at the state level. (You may use the MS
EXCEL). In conclusion also write, why you have chosen this graph for this problem? (5 Marks)
| State Name | District Name | Total MSMEs | Micro | Small | Medium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTTARAKHAND | ALMORA | 1235 | 1068 | 150 | 17 |
| UTTARAKHAND | BAGESHWAR | 838 | 807 | 29 | 2 |
| UTTARAKHAND | CHAMOLI | 739 | 688 | 49 | 2 |
| UTTARAKHAND | CHAMPAWAT | 802 | 745 | 55 | 2 |
| UTTARAKHAND | DEHRADUN | 12605 | 10600 | 1909 | 96 |
| UTTARAKHAND | HARIDWAR | 8883 | 6416 | 2263 | 204 |
| UTTARAKHAND | NAINITAL | 3752 | 3003 | 675 | 74 |
| UTTARAKHAND | PAURI GARHWAL | 4955 | 4678 | 264 | 13 |
| UTTARAKHAND | PITHORAGARH | 1061 | 962 | 95 | 4 |
| UTTARAKHAND | RUDRA PRAYAG | 740 | 698 | 37 | 5 |
| UTTARAKHAND | TEHRI GARHWAL | 1399 | 1227 | 162 | 10 |
| UTTARAKHAND | UDHAM SINGH NAGAR | 9746 | 7767 | 1839 | 140 |
| UTTARAKHAND | UTTARKASHI | 1114 | 1002 | 111 | 1 |
Data source: OGD
Last date : 29th November
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